Tomorrow, elections will be held across the country, including gubernatorial, a Congressional special election, state legislatures, a state Supreme Court, and local prosecutors. Beyond their impact for this election, these races may offer a preview into the 2024 election landscape.
These races present an opportunity to gauge the prevailing national sentiment, discern which party has momentum entering the presidential election, and identify which issues and campaign messages resonate with voters. Additionally, they provide indicators on future voter enthusiasm and turnout patterns.
- Kentucky: Incumbent Governor Andy Beshear (D) is facing challenger Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). Republicans have an opportunity to make the state a “trifecta” as they already control both legislative chambers. This will also be a test of Democratic incumbent strength in a state dominated by Republicans.
- Mississippi: Incumbent Tate Reeves (R) is running against Brandon Presley (D). This race will reveal how competitive Democratic challengers can be in Republican dominated states.
- Rhode Island: Gabe Amo (D) and Gerry Leonard (R) are running in a special election in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District. Former Rep. David Cicilline (D), who vacated the seat earlier this year, won the 2022 election with 64 percent of the vote, and Biden carried the district with 63.8 percent of the vote in 2020. This race could prove to be an early indicator of Democratic voter enthusiasm.
- Virginia: With Democrats holding a 22-18 majority in the Senate and Republicans holding a 49-43 majority in the House of Delegates, control of the state legislature is tightly contested this year. Of the four states holding state legislative elections (Louisiana, Mississippi, and New Jersey), Virginia is the closest to a battleground state on the ballot. This may prove to be an early test of what issues resonate most with voters ahead of 2024.
State Supreme Court & District Attorneys:
- Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Carolyn Carluccio (R) and Daniel McCafferty (D) are running for a seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Democrats currently hold a 4-2 majority on the Supreme Court, but this race could have implications for 2025 when three Democratic Justices are up for re-election.
District Attorney Races: New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are notable states that are holding local prosecutorial elections this year. These races may prove to be a litmus test nationally for the importance of crime and judicial reform going into 2024.